Workshop on Financial Mathematics

Earlier this week, I had the pleasure to participate in the 5th International Conference on Mathematical Modelling by giving a 4 hours course/workshop titled "A Short Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Mathematics". All the course materials (slides and Jupyter notebooks) can be found in my Github repository ICMM. The course was aimed to… Continue reading Workshop on Financial Mathematics

Oil Shocks and the Probability of U.S. Recession

This chart was motivated by the article History Suggests Oil Shock Raises Probability of U.S. Recession published last Friday by Bloomberg. According to the article, historical data shows that big surges in crude-oil prices have ended U.S. economic expansions and tipped the U.S. economy into recession.