Historical Inflation and Interest Rates

As we know very well (since we are now painfully familiar with inflation being above target), a key part of inflation targeting is that the Monetary Policy Committee increases or decreases the Bank Rate in order to help inflation to come back to target. So, let’s take a look at the history of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Bank Rate focusing on the last 3 decades of inflation targeting.

Invited Talk – Mathematics for Beginners

This week I had the honour to open the 1st Season of the conference series “Mathematics for Beginners” organised by the REMIM (Mexican Network of Mathematics Institutes) and the SMM (Mexican Mathematics Society). The series aims to promote mathematics by discussing theoretical and applied topics with a general audience, as well as sharing different career options that students can take after finishing their studies in Mathematics.

Expert Lecture at KCL

Last week, I had the honor to give an Expert Lecture at King’s College to MSc students from the Computational Finance programe.

Workshop on Financial Mathematics

Earlier this week, I had the pleasure to participate in the 5th International Conference on Mathematical Modelling by giving a 4 hours course/workshop titled “A Short Introduction to Monte Carlo […]

Oil Shocks and the Probability of U.S. Recession

This chart was motivated by the article History Suggests Oil Shock Raises Probability of U.S. Recession published last Friday by Bloomberg. According to the article, historical data shows that big surges in crude-oil prices have ended U.S. economic expansions and tipped the U.S. economy into recession.

Bitcoin a Big Winner during the Pandemic Crisis

As of today Bitcoin is trading at around $43K. This is about 50% down from its November 2021 record high. However, this is more than 80% up compared with its value at the beginning of the covid-19 crisis.

UK Inflation Projection

According to the BoE, the projected overshoot of inflation relative to the 2% target mainly reflects global energy and tradable goods prices, the latter due to global supply chain disruptions.

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