The latest Bank of England CPI inflation forecasts.
Category: Finance
Workshop on Financial Mathematics
Earlier this week, I had the pleasure to participate in the 5th International Conference on Mathematical Modelling by giving a 4 hours course/workshop titled "A Short Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Mathematics". All the course materials (slides and Jupyter notebooks) can be found in my Github repository ICMM. The course was aimed to… Continue reading Workshop on Financial Mathematics
Oil Shocks and the Probability of U.S. Recession
This chart was motivated by the article History Suggests Oil Shock Raises Probability of U.S. Recession published last Friday by Bloomberg. According to the article, historical data shows that big surges in crude-oil prices have ended U.S. economic expansions and tipped the U.S. economy into recession.
Bitcoin a Big Winner during the Pandemic Crisis
As of today Bitcoin is trading at around $43K. This is about 50% down from its November 2021 record high. However, this is more than 80% up compared with its value at the beginning of the covid-19 crisis.
4 Charts on the UK Inflation Projections
Four ways to visualise CPI inflation forecasts.
UK Inflation Projection
According to the BoE, the projected overshoot of inflation relative to the 2% target mainly reflects global energy and tradable goods prices, the latter due to global supply chain disruptions.
Shipping Costs Trends
Freight is big business. It is a necessity, not a luxury. When transportation system performance decreases, freight-related businesses and their customers are affected.
Fan Charts
Since 1996 the Bank of England inflation forecast has been published as a probability distribution and presented in what is now known as ‘the fan chart’. This post provides an overview on this useful visualisation tool and its Python implementation.